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The Colts achieved a 19-13 road upset against the Chiefs in Week 5 before enjoying a bye last week. In other words, they are brimming with confidence and plenty of preparation heading into this home meeting against the Texans. Making matters even better, star linebacker Darius Leonard will reportedly return from concussion protocol.
Coincidently, the Texans also took down Kansas City on the road with a 31-24 victory last Sunday. That marks two straight victories for Houston, and quarterback Deshaun Watson was instrumental in both of them. However, this is a tough road contest against a legitimate Colts’ defense that kept Patrick Mahomes under wraps in Week 5. Something’s gotta give in this intriguing divisional matchup.
- Opening Lines: The spread opened at Texans -1 before eventually moving in favor of the Colts. The over/under has dropped marginally after opening at 47.5.
- Current Line: Colts -1 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- O/U: 47 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
- Start Time: 1:00pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: January 5, 2019 – Colts defeated Texans 21-7 in Houston (playoffs)
Whichever quarterback has a more efficient performance will likely emerge with a victory. Watson is the better all-around quarterback, but he could have an uphill climb on the road against a tough Indianapolis pass defense. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett has an easier matchup against a Texans team that ranks 24th against the pass. Houston is dealing with some injuries in the defensive backfield as well, given that cornerback Bradley Roby is out and Jonathan Joseph is trying to return from a hamstring injury.
- The Texans are 5-9 ATS vs. the AFC South over the past two years.
- The Texans are 10-4 to the under in the division since 2017.
- The Colts are also 10-4 to the under in the division since 2017.
- The Colts are 6-3-1 ATS as a home favorite over the past two years.
T.Y. Hilton OVER 83 Receiving Yards
Read the “overview” section, and you’ll understand while Hilton is so appealing on Sunday. The Texans have a funnel defense that is solid against the run and generous to the pass. Hilton has an excellent chance to step up in this matchup against a banged-up Houston secondary. This is one of his best draws so far this season, and Hilton has been historically better at home throughout his career.
I’m taking the Colts here. They are healthier and fully rested while settling into this home matchup. Even though Watson is a dynamic playmaker who can turn a game upside down, I’m siding with the Colts as a complete team with a proven defense.
Pick: Colts -1 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 7
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+4)
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants (-3)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (+2)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins (+9.5)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (-4)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (+9.5)