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The Bills are 4-1 this season while enjoying a bye last weekend. Their only loss came in a tight 16-10 defeat to the Patriots, a game where quarterback Josh Allen was forced to leave with an injury. Led by a stout defense to compliment an up-and-coming quarterback, the Bills have entered the conversation as a legitimate playoff team. They’ll need to play like one in order to cover a three-score spread on Sunday.
We all know that Miami has problems, but hey, they were a two-point conversion away from beating Washington last Sunday. Instead, the Dolphins remain winless at 0-5, and it will be an uphill climb for them to secure their first (only?) win of the season. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will start this game after taking over for Josh Rosen to bring the Dolphins back into the contest last weekend. However, he’ll likely have a difficult time repeating that success against one of the best defenses in football.
- Opening Lines: The spread opened at Bills -17 before dropping marginally. The over/under has fallen after opening at 41.5.
- Current Line: Bills -16.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- O/U: 40.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Location: New Era Field – Buffalo, NY
- Start Time: 1:00pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: December 30, 2018 – Bills defeated the Dolphins 42-17
In order for Buffalo to cover a whopping 16.5-point spread, they’ll need to strike early in an effort to shake Miami of any optimism. Having a strong defense that can produce turnovers with favorable field position should help in that regard. On the other hand, the Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league in almost every defensive category, run defense, pass defense, yards per carry, yards per completion, scoring defense, etc, etc. A three-score spread represents a ton of points in the NFL, but there’s a reason why the Dolphins find themselves as massive underdogs.
- The Bills are 7-5-1 ATS as favorites over the past two years.
- The Dolphins are 13-4 ATS on the road over the past two years.
- The Bills are 8-6 to the under in the division since 2017.
- The Dolphins are 8-5 to the under in the division since 2017.
Devin Singletary OVER 51 Rushing Yards
Buffalo running back Frank Gore is a cool story, but the Bills need to start feeding Singletary the rock more often. That could happen on Sunday, as Singletary seems to be fully recovered from a hamstring injury that left him sidelined for three games. There should be plenty of carries for Gore and Singletary as Buffalo will try to control the clock while preserving a lead against Miami’s generous defense. The training wheels could come off here, and Singletary’s talent could be on full display.
I can’t take the Dolphins here, so the spread comes down to the Bills or nothing. However, looking towards the over/under presents a better opportunity. We know Miami can live up to their end of the “under bargain,” while the Bills will likely play keep-away with sustained drives in the second half. On top of that, the Dolphins will try to shorten this game as much as possible to give themselves a chance. Putting those pieces together, the under catches my eye as a good play.
Pick: Under 40.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 7
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+4)
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants (-3)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (+2)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins (+9.5)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (-4)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (+9.5)