No one would have predicted that the Week 7 matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans would be a battle of 2-4 teams. The Charges have fallen short of expectations thanks to a banged-up offensive line and losing a key piece on defense. Tennessee has fallen short of expectations thanks to uneven quarterback play. Something has to give in Week 7.
- Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -1 on the Tennessee Titans. The over/under total opened at 40.5 points. The point spread has risen to -2.5 on Tennessee. The over/under total has also seen some movement, with the total slightly rising from 40.5 to 41 points.
- Current Line: Los Angeles +2.5
- O/U: 41
- Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
- Start Time: 4:05 PM EST, Sunday, October 20th
- Last Meeting: Los Angeles defeated Tennessee 20-19 – October 21st, 2018
Los Angeles saw their 2019 aspirations take major hits before the season even opened. Star safety Derwin James was lost with a foot injury. Hunter Henry was lost with a knee injury. Center Mike Pouncey was lost with a neck injury. Rusell Okung was sidelined with pulmonary embolism. Finally, Melvin Gordon held out for five weeks while angling for a new contract. Despite an easy schedule, the Chargers currently sit at 2-4 on the season. Los Angeles has dug themselves a sizable hole and have the schedule to surpass eight wins if they can find some consistency on both sides of the ball. The AFC West could be up for grabs if Patrick Mahomes’ injury proves to be more than just a 1-2 week absence. Philip Rivers has been solid outside of the touchdown department this season and is averaging four-year highs in passing yards per game and passing yards per attempt. Los Angeles needs to find some consistency on offense if they are to reach their goals for the 2019 season.
The Tennessee Titans have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams. Loaded with talent across the board, the Titans failed to address what was, and what still is their most glaring hole. Marcus Mariota was benched during last week’s contest for fellow former first-round pick Ryan Tannehill. Mariota has been afforded ample opportunity to prove he has what it takes to be an above-average NFL starter and has failed repeatedly. Ryan Tannehill was a major disappointment in Miami but now enters a situation with a great defense, and an offense with the most talented collection of skill players that he has ever had the pleasure of playing with. The Titans sit at 2-4 on the season and needed to make a change under center. Tannehill is likely auditioning for a role on the Titans in 2020 as he can serve as a bridge option if the Titans bring in a rookie signal-caller from the 2020 NFL Draft class. The Titans are too talented to continue to be held back by shoddy quarterback play and likely brought in Tannehill for just that reason. Offensive play calling has also been an issue, but a team needs the right quarterback to shift from a run-heavy philosophy to a more balanced approach. Mariota proved he was not that quarterback. With some good quarterback play, the Titans can finish the season above .500. If the play under center continues to be substandard, we could be looking at a six-win team.
- Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS on the season.
- Los Angeles is 1-1 ATS on the road this season.
- Tennessee is 2-4 ATS on the season.
- Tennessee is 0-2 ATS at home this season.
- The favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine contests between these two teams.
- The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams.
- Los Angeles is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four contests in Tennessee.
- Los Angeles is 5-0 ATS in their last five road contests against teams with losing home records.
- Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests.
- Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests following a loss ATS.
- Los Angeles is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six contests against the AFC.
- Los Angeles is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven contests.
- Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a loss ATS.
- Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests against teams with a losing road record.
- Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in their last four home contests.
- Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in their last six October contests.
- Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests following a straight up loss.
- Under is 5-0 in Los Angeles’ last five contests.
- Under is 4-0 in Los Angeles’ last four contests following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-1 in Los Angeles’ last five road contests.
- Under is 4-0 in Los Angeles’ last four road contests against teams with a losing home record.
- Under is 4-0 in Tennessee’s last four contests against the AFC.
- Under is 6-0 in Tennessee’s last six October contests.
- Under is 5-0 in Tennessee’s last five contests against teams with losing records.
- Under is 5-0 in Tennessee’s last five contests.
A.J. Brown over 50 receiving yards (-113)
A.J. Brown is averaging 45.5 yards per game on the season and looks like a safe bet to clear the 50 receiving yard total in Week 7. Corey Davis is likely to be shadowed by Chargers top corner Casey Hayward which should lead to Brown leading all Titans’ receivers in targets. With Ryan Tannehill now under center Brown sees his weekly floor raised. While Tannehill is not much better than Mariota, he has been able to identify and feed the top talent on his team throughout his time with the Miami Dolphins.
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5/Over 33.5 (-110)
With two underachieving teams set to do battle, the underdog/over teaser at PointsBet seems to be the best value on the board. There is an argument to be made that the Chargers should be the favorite in this contest to begin with. A +7.5 point spread means that a team that opened as one-point favorites will have to win by eight points for the spread piece of this wager not to click. While the under was strongly considered at 46.5 points, the over 33.5 points seems like the safer play and value. These two teams have combined for 36.3 points per game on the season.
While wagering on contests with a quarterback making their first start is not often a wise endeavor, the Los Angeles Chargers appear to possess some value here. They will be facing one of the league’s best defenses from a points per game allowed perspective, but boast the much better offense. The Chargers have scored 20 points per game on the season, while the Titans have scored just 12 points per home contest. Ryan Tannehill is the wild card in this contest. If he plays well, the Titans will cruise to an easy victory. If he cannot take advantage of the most talented supporting cast he has ever played with, the Chargers should win in a rout. The line movement for this contest suggests that despite the Chargers being the play the public slightly favors, the money has been on the Titans. While waiting until the point spread moves to a full three points would be ideal, +3 can be found at 888sport at just -120. This is the wager to take if you are into alternative lines. If you are a juice chaser, the best odds on the Chargers can be found at PointsBet at -105.
Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 7
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+4)
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants (-3)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (+2)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins (+9.5)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (-16.5)
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears (-4)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (+9.5)