2026 Kentucky Derby Picks: Longshots & Sleeper Bets

The Kentucky Derby is just days away. While five horses have odds shorter than 10/1 to win, there are plenty of longshot contenders to consider when placing wagers on the race with your 2026 Kentucky Derby picks.

Below, I highlight three horses that could make some noise, and even if they don't win, could end up increasing payouts for exotics with second or third-place finishes.

How to Bet on the 2026 Kentucky Derby >>

2026 Kentucky Derby Picks: Longshots & Sleeper Bets

Here are the best longshots to consider for the 2026 Kentucky Derby.

Golden Tempo

Golden Tempo is a closer, as shown by his run at the Louisiana Derby. While he ultimately finished third in that race, running behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian, he had plenty of speed left at the end, but he didn't make his move early enough. 

Will Golden Tempo sit way off the pace again as he did in that race? If he does, then he has no chance to win. But if he manages to go out a little faster and still close as well as he did at the Louisiana Derby, then this is a horse worth monitoring. After all, the Louisiana Derby is only 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, and the horse showed no signs of fading in that race.

As Emerging Market's odds continue to improve, I can't help but wonder why a horse that finished just over a length behind Emerging Market has longer odds.

Check out our full 2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Profile for Golden Tempo >>

Fulleffort 

Fulleffort is one of three horses from trainer Brad H. Cox participating in this race, and he has the worst odds of the trio. Cox has only won one Kentucky Derby, and it came in 2021 when Mandaloun was awarded the win after Medina Spirit was disqualified. 

Fulleffort is coming off a win at the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he ran away from the field late. He should be fresh for this race, as that event took place on March 21st, giving him more than a month off in between races. 

That said, the one downside for Fulleffort is that he's never run on dirt. All seven of his races have been on either turf or synthetic, so we don't know exactly what we will get from this horse on the surface at Churchill Downs.

However, this negative is offset by jockey Tyler Gaffalione being astride the horse. It was just two years ago that he finished second aboard Sierra Leone, losing by a nose to Mystik Dan.

Check out our full 2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Profile for Fulleffort >>

Potente 

My biggest concern for Potente is the length of this race. The horse really struggled down the final stretch at the Santa Anita Derby in early April, as So Happy ran by him to win by three lengths. Still, there is a lot of potential for this horse.

Potente has only raced three times, and he has never finished worse than second, winning twice. And while that race at Santa Anita was alarming, Potente also led for most of the race. If the horse takes a less aggressive approach in this race, there's no reason to think that Potente can't be in the mix late.

Additionally, this is trainer Bob Baffert's best shot at breaking the record for most Kentucky Derby wins, as his other horse, Litmus Test, has odds of 50-1 to emerge victorious.

However, Baffert will be relying on jockey Juan Hernandez, who is making his first-ever Kentucky Derby start. That said, he has ridden Potente in each of his last two starts, and the results have been mostly positive, with first- and second-place finishes.

Check out our full 2026 Kentucky Derby Betting Profile for Potente >>

2026 Kentucky Derby Field

*Silent Tactic was scratched and replaced with Great White (+5000) as an alternative in Post Position 21.

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.